Outlook and result guidance

Metsä Board estimates its near term outlook in each interim report and provides a verbal guidance on the development of the operating result for the next quarter.

Near term outlook

Source: Half-year financial report January–June 2022

Demand for fresh fibre paperboards is expected to remain good in the company’s main market areas in Europe and North America. Demand will continue to be supported by long-term megatrends such as the use of renewable packaging materials to replace plastic. The slowdown in global economic growth and decrease in consumer’s purchasing power create uncertainty in the operating environment.

Metsä Board’s paperboard delivery volumes in July–September are expected to remain roughly at the same level as in April–June (472,000 tonnes). The average prices of folding boxboard and white kraftliners are expected to continue to increase.

Demand for long-fibre market pulp is expected to remain good in Europe and China. The global supply of market pulp will continue to be restricted by bottlenecks in logistics as well as planned and unplanned production shutdowns. A stronger than expected slowdown in global economic growth and the impacts of the Covid-19 situation in China are creating uncertainty about the development of the market situation.

The planned annual maintenance shutdowns are expected to have a similar impact on results in July–September 2022 to those in April–June 2022.

Cost inflation is expected to continue, especially in chemicals and energy. Logistics costs will remain high due to limited availability of transport equipment and high fuel prices. The increases in the wood price in the early part of the year together with higher harvesting and transport costs are expected to increase total wood costs in the second half the year compared to the first half.

In July–September 2022, exchange rate fluctuations, including the impact of hedges, will have a positive impact on the result compared to April–June 2022 and a clearly positive impact compared to July–September 2021.

 

Result guidance for July–Sepember 2022

Metsä Board’s comparable operating result in July–September 2022 is expected to be roughly at the same level as in April–June 2022.